Progressive Movement

I have been busy with work the last few weeks, so I have not been able to really explore the Presidential campaign’s various up and downs, but have at least been able to pick up Obama’s conservative drift ever since he got the nomination.

On some level this should happen, as the general election is a more moderate affair than a primary.  On another level though, this tactic has disserved the Democrats for years, and if you look at most Republican general elections, they do not move to the middle nearly as much as Democrats, preferring instead to stay true to their talking points.

As a result, Republicans have better brand identity and have functioned more efficiently as a party since they demand greater loyalty and ideological purity.

Their success I believe largely informed the Democratic move to the right, that and the fact that clearer conservative vision, narrower focus, and stricter discipline helped transform what was largely a liberal populace into a decidedly conservative one.

At least in the public’s mind’s they were conservative.  Polls for years have shown the public is largely progressive on a myriad of issues.  They just were not voting that way.  In essence, they were liberal they just did not identify themselves as such.

The Democrats, however, took the wrong lesson from this and moved the Party to the center, rather than try to readjust the public’s perception of liberalism and the Democratic Party as a whole.

Obama in the primary seemed to understand this.  He was using religious language and style to describe the moral underpinnings of progressive vaules – a key failure with previous Democratic candidates.  He spoke of post-partisanship and a need to move beyond typical Washington gridlock, essentially convincing people that progressive values are beyond politics and what Washington would embrace if it moved beyond partisanship.

Brilliant, and was largely effective.  However, what Obama seems to have forgotten Read the rest of this entry »

Messaging, Elections, Democrats, Obama, FISA | 2 Comments »

Yesterday Al Gore endorsed Obama, and McCain had to back away from a fundraiser hosted by a sexist and thoroughly discredited politician Clayton Williams.  To top it off, McCain tried to claim his people knew nothing about Williams’ notorious claim that rape was like the weather, so women should just sit back and enjoy it since they cannot fight it.

Everyone who followed politics back in 1990 heard about this statement.  This is a bold faced lie by McCain that his peeps were ignorant of Williams’ comment.  For crying out loud, he made it in the heat of the Texas Gubernatorial race that he lost to the extremely popular Ann Richards!  Of course his people knew about it.

In case there were any Hillary supporters contemplating McCain, this episode should permanently dissuade them from such nonsense.  The Republican Party, John McCain, and Clayton Williams, do not support women or care about their issues.

On the day that Al Gore, successful former Vice President, Nobel Prize Winner, Oscar winner, and leading advocate for fighting climate disruption, endorses Obama, John McCain has to back away from a supporter/fundraiser who claimed women should enjoy rape.

Can the difference be any clearer?

And yet the chattering class does not think this is a big deal nor want to make much of an issue about it.  To keep this devastating chasm in the limelight, progressives and Democrats have to force the media to cover it.  The difficulty lies in the fact that Obama cannot be seen as harping on this too much, lest he appear to be going negative.  However, there are some great progressive female surrogates who can drive this embarrassing episode into the public consciousness.  This treads a very fine line between being a legitimate issue and crass politicalization, but it has to be done.

At the least, make the point clear to wavering Democrats that McCain, who will not return the money Williams has raised for him, should be utterly unacceptable to anyone who even moderately considers themselves modern and progressive.  Heck, McCain’s refusal to back away completely from Williams is not even acceptable to people who consider themselves agreeable to the basic moral standards of the 20th century.  Taking that money essentially endorses Williams’ viewpoints.

Even if he returns the money, Williams’ comments show the moral core and attitudes of many of the Republican Party.  Who do you want representing the country, someone who bumps shoulders with Clayton Williams, or someone who bumps shoulders with Al Gore?

That is the choice this November.

Elections, McCain, Obama, sexism | 1 Comment »

As usual, I am behind the curve, but people are still madly dissecting the ‘Clinton collapse’, even going so far as to make fun of how much money she spend per delegate (over $100,000) just to lose. The only thing this says to me is that we need to make the process of running for President a heck of a lot cheaper.

I also believe that the ‘Clinton collapse’ is not really a collapse. It was partly if not wholly engendered by the media anointing her the front runner and repeating ad nauseum that it was her race to lose. Anyone who knew anything about politics had to know that Obama would be competitive.

So why do I think Clinton did not get the job done? Drum roll please…messaging.

Okay, you all knew I would say that. But seriously, her entire campaign consistently struck the wrong cord up until nearly the end.

Early Campaign

First, a bit of quick messaging overview. She started her run taking a decidedly middle ground, as if she was running a general election campaign rather than a primary one. Kerry made the same mistake in ’03 and corrected it quickly enough to stop Dean.

Clinton’s tactic was clearly aimed at bringing Independents to her cause, but like every moderate DLC Democrat, she misunderstood that Independents are not such because they have wishy-washy opinions, but because they do not like either Party. Watering down your policies does not win people in the middle over. Breaking the two-Party mold does. Standing for something wins votes. Pandering does not. Clinton, by not taking firm positions on key issues (witness her refusal to admit being wrong on the Iraq vote), simply did not excite the base nor win over Independents.

Another great example is health care. Clinton did not introduce her universal health care plan until Edwards did and started gaining traction on it. In a nutshell, Read the rest of this entry »

Messaging, Elections, Democrats, Edwards, Obama, Analysis, Hillary Clinton, Narratives, primaries | No Comments »

The dust has settled over the Obama nomination. What has remained? What is the lasting narrative we have seen over the last week?

Well, I feared that Obama losing SD would be a disastrous portend of things to come. And it still may be, but despite him limping backwards, practically mortally wounded, over the finish line, largely due to the help of superdelegates, the narrative was about how momentous and historic the occasion was. And it is. But it would have been for Hillary as well.

Obama was helped in this by two things. One, McCain’s terrible decision to have a major speech hours before Obama’s shining moment. Green backdrop, deadpan delivery, boring content, and 50 people in the audience – not good. Compare that to Obama’s gracious and soaring speech in typical Obama style on the night of his coronation. Even Fox News had to give the guy props and bash McCain.

Second, Hillary did not concede that night. Bad move, and that was all the networks could talk about. Of course now all the talk is whether we will get Obama/Clinton. I seriously doubt it; in fact, I will run around the block naked if he chooses her.

Those two things, and the very special significance of Obama’s win hide the fact that the Democratic voters were showing signs of buyer’s remorse. Only Pat Buchanan pointed it out, but no one took him up on the thread.

Needless to say, a great speech (and two bad ones), can definitely plaster over an unstable wall. I have fear that plaster may crumble, and unless Obama can fix what is causing the problem underneath, he may be in for trouble.

On the other hand, Read the rest of this entry »

Elections, McCain, Obama, Analysis, Hillary Clinton, Narratives, Elitism frame | 3 Comments »

Hillary cleaned Obama’s clock in PR today, a commonwealth that will not have a voice in the general election (would someone please makes them a state of give them independence – this wishy-washy, middle of the road commonwealth status must be dropped).

This victory makes it that much easier for her to claim she has won the popular vote, although she still only gets to make that claim by creative, self-selective math. But the media repeats it, so everyone will think it is true. Strangely, it mimics Obama’s supporter’s arguments when he was winning states but still behind due to superdelegates; the argument was that superdelegates should not overrule the will of the people. Well, now it is not so clear the will of the people has been sorted out. The vote totals are pretty close after more than 35 million votes cast.

The irony is that Obama supporters now claim the popular vote does not matter and only delegate totals do. Pretty easy to make that argument when your candidate now has more superdelegates than his opponent, huh?

But here is what is true. Read the rest of this entry »

Messaging, Elections, Democrats, Kerry, Obama, Analysis, Hillary Clinton, weak on defense label, primaries, experience frame, Elitism frame | No Comments »

In my last post I talked about how Obama missed his chance to shed his elitist image if he had taken the time to talk and listen to the good folks of WV. It would have given him the chance to hear why many of these blue collar working class Appalachians vote on cultural issues and not on their economic situation. Indeed, many people, Appalachian or not, vote on cultural issues against their own well-being.

Spending time in WV doing what I suggested would make Obama seem more approachable and less out of touch.

And while that may have worked somewhat to alleviate his cultural disconnect, he would still have one other problem – the media.

We all know the media loves a good controversy. Moreover, they love an easy plot line and narrative. ‘Obama the black man has a white problem’ is a great controversy and a ready made narrative. It writes itself, so they stick with it.

Problem is, it is not true. Obama has won the majority of white voters in many states, as does particularly well out West and in the Plains states. He does okay with whites in the South. He has won the working class vote in several states as well. The issue here is with more culturally conservative Democrats from Appalachia, as well as older voters.

In fact, his difficulty with older voters is more of a problem and has been consistent in every state. But that story line needs explaining as it does not make obvious sense. So the media drops it and runs with the false story that reads like a Lifetime made for TV drama.

Obama needs to nip this narrative of him not connecting with white voters in the bud. He cannot let that be the message coming out of the primary. Obama can help alter this theme by not only winning OR, MT, and SD (very white states), but by highlighting places where he got the majority of white votes.

Of course, getting John Edwards’ endorsement gives him more street cred with working class whites, so clearly Obama understands this situation now, although I think it took a 41 pt loss in WV to really see it. But he and his surrogates need to not only appear less elitist, and out of touch, they need to take the media to task for running a false narrative about him.

And the Netroots needs to make this a priority too. Maybe someone can make a T-shirt that says, “White for Obama..” That would be sweet. Someone get on it!

At the end of the day, Obama has more of an economic problem than a race problem. Neither is good, and he needs to address both since perception is reality in politics.

Elections, media, Edwards, Analysis, Narratives, primaries, Elitism frame | 4 Comments »

The big (as the Clintons and the media would have you believe) primary results in WV are in and the expected happened. Hillary trounced Obama. In my previous two posts I stated how Obama needs to address the charge of elitism, and by extension, his problem with reaching culturally conservative voters – the exact same kind of voters who sent him to great defeat in WV.

Instead, Obama basically ignored WV. This has done irreparable harm. Now these same voters, who naturally should vote Democrat but have not for decades, think Obama does not care about them. Obama, knowing he would lose WV, chose not to focus on the state and instead start his transition to the general election.

He should have taken the week and talked to as many working class families in WV as possible. Not preaching to them or campaigning them, but listening to them. Find out why they think and vote as they do; find out what problems they face and what makes them tick. Learn about their lifestyle and beliefs.

This would have given him the opportunity to make him seem more approachable and human, not so out of touch. And it would show that he cares about their problems and values.

Doing that would be a general election strategy as well. He knew he was not going to win the state, but he has to start a conversation with this demographic in order to win the general election. Now the window has all but closed. He can try to mend this wound in KY this week, but he has to run up his vote total in OR too, so he simply cannot spend the time he needs to make it worth his while.

Moreover, letting Hillary win by 40 points instead of 30 gives her much more credibility to claim she can win key working class states like OH, PA, WV and that Obama is out of touch with everyday working Americans struggling with things like gas prices.

So now, whether or not he is out of touch or elitist, he is seen as such. Whether he can win blue collar worker or not, he is seen as incapable of doing so. And as I have said before, perception is everything in politics, and right now Obama is losing this battle against the elitism charge and the idea that he cannot win working class voters.

Obama is losing his ability to control the narrative. I think this particular narrative – that he is out of touch and elitist, is pretty much set. He will either have to spend most of the rest of the election fighting it off, or he will just have to ignore it and hope people will vote on more serious issues.

The latter could very well happen, but it is a dangerous strategy given that swing voters generally vote on values and character instead of issues.

All in all a very big strategic mistake by Obama.

Messaging, Elections, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Narratives, primaries, Elitism frame | No Comments »

Great victory for Obama tonight in NC, and nearly pulling off an upset in IN. He gains in delegates and in popular vote, nearly wiping out Hillary’s gain from PA two weeks ago. She really has little to support her continued candidacy at this point, except 3 out of the next 4 primaries being favorable to her. Delegate wise she has no chance really.

This gives Obama space to address charges of elitism. It also means he has weathered his harshest storm so far. This kind of tough, bruising battle often makes better general election candidates. He has shown his toughness and resilience.

But he is not out of the water. He actually won largely on issues this week, primarily the gas tax, an issue Hillary crahsed and burned over. He still has not delivered the stirring speech he needs to over cultural issues. With KY and WV coming up, two culturally conservative states, it would be an appropriate time to break out the big guns and grab the initiative by tackling culture head on. Trust me, the Wright controversy is not over.

Nor is the conservative attack, and even the Hillary attack, over regarding whether Obama is a patriot. See how the media latched onto his friendship with a former Weatherman? Trying to paint him as unpatriotic. I said before they would bring up more stuff to fit into this narrative of Obama not being patriotic, and they did. This will be their main play, as it sets up a stark contrast with McCain. Wright coming back last week certainly added to this theme.

Obama now has two major charges, both of which carry huge emotional weight with the American people. He has to start addressing them now.

Messaging, Elections, Obama, Analysis, Narratives, weak on defense label, primaries, Elitism frame | No Comments »