Progressive Movement

In my last post I talked about how Obama missed his chance to shed his elitist image if he had taken the time to talk and listen to the good folks of WV. It would have given him the chance to hear why many of these blue collar working class Appalachians vote on cultural issues and not on their economic situation. Indeed, many people, Appalachian or not, vote on cultural issues against their own well-being.

Spending time in WV doing what I suggested would make Obama seem more approachable and less out of touch.

And while that may have worked somewhat to alleviate his cultural disconnect, he would still have one other problem – the media.

We all know the media loves a good controversy. Moreover, they love an easy plot line and narrative. ‘Obama the black man has a white problem’ is a great controversy and a ready made narrative. It writes itself, so they stick with it.

Problem is, it is not true. Obama has won the majority of white voters in many states, as does particularly well out West and in the Plains states. He does okay with whites in the South. He has won the working class vote in several states as well. The issue here is with more culturally conservative Democrats from Appalachia, as well as older voters.

In fact, his difficulty with older voters is more of a problem and has been consistent in every state. But that story line needs explaining as it does not make obvious sense. So the media drops it and runs with the false story that reads like a Lifetime made for TV drama.

Obama needs to nip this narrative of him not connecting with white voters in the bud. He cannot let that be the message coming out of the primary. Obama can help alter this theme by not only winning OR, MT, and SD (very white states), but by highlighting places where he got the majority of white votes.

Of course, getting John Edwards’ endorsement gives him more street cred with working class whites, so clearly Obama understands this situation now, although I think it took a 41 pt loss in WV to really see it. But he and his surrogates need to not only appear less elitist, and out of touch, they need to take the media to task for running a false narrative about him.

And the Netroots needs to make this a priority too. Maybe someone can make a T-shirt that says, “White for Obama..” That would be sweet. Someone get on it!

At the end of the day, Obama has more of an economic problem than a race problem. Neither is good, and he needs to address both since perception is reality in politics.

Elections, media, Edwards, Analysis, Narratives, primaries, Elitism frame | 4 Comments »

The big (as the Clintons and the media would have you believe) primary results in WV are in and the expected happened. Hillary trounced Obama. In my previous two posts I stated how Obama needs to address the charge of elitism, and by extension, his problem with reaching culturally conservative voters – the exact same kind of voters who sent him to great defeat in WV.

Instead, Obama basically ignored WV. This has done irreparable harm. Now these same voters, who naturally should vote Democrat but have not for decades, think Obama does not care about them. Obama, knowing he would lose WV, chose not to focus on the state and instead start his transition to the general election.

He should have taken the week and talked to as many working class families in WV as possible. Not preaching to them or campaigning them, but listening to them. Find out why they think and vote as they do; find out what problems they face and what makes them tick. Learn about their lifestyle and beliefs.

This would have given him the opportunity to make him seem more approachable and human, not so out of touch. And it would show that he cares about their problems and values.

Doing that would be a general election strategy as well. He knew he was not going to win the state, but he has to start a conversation with this demographic in order to win the general election. Now the window has all but closed. He can try to mend this wound in KY this week, but he has to run up his vote total in OR too, so he simply cannot spend the time he needs to make it worth his while.

Moreover, letting Hillary win by 40 points instead of 30 gives her much more credibility to claim she can win key working class states like OH, PA, WV and that Obama is out of touch with everyday working Americans struggling with things like gas prices.

So now, whether or not he is out of touch or elitist, he is seen as such. Whether he can win blue collar worker or not, he is seen as incapable of doing so. And as I have said before, perception is everything in politics, and right now Obama is losing this battle against the elitism charge and the idea that he cannot win working class voters.

Obama is losing his ability to control the narrative. I think this particular narrative – that he is out of touch and elitist, is pretty much set. He will either have to spend most of the rest of the election fighting it off, or he will just have to ignore it and hope people will vote on more serious issues.

The latter could very well happen, but it is a dangerous strategy given that swing voters generally vote on values and character instead of issues.

All in all a very big strategic mistake by Obama.

Messaging, Elections, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Narratives, primaries, Elitism frame | No Comments »

Great victory for Obama tonight in NC, and nearly pulling off an upset in IN. He gains in delegates and in popular vote, nearly wiping out Hillary’s gain from PA two weeks ago. She really has little to support her continued candidacy at this point, except 3 out of the next 4 primaries being favorable to her. Delegate wise she has no chance really.

This gives Obama space to address charges of elitism. It also means he has weathered his harshest storm so far. This kind of tough, bruising battle often makes better general election candidates. He has shown his toughness and resilience.

But he is not out of the water. He actually won largely on issues this week, primarily the gas tax, an issue Hillary crahsed and burned over. He still has not delivered the stirring speech he needs to over cultural issues. With KY and WV coming up, two culturally conservative states, it would be an appropriate time to break out the big guns and grab the initiative by tackling culture head on. Trust me, the Wright controversy is not over.

Nor is the conservative attack, and even the Hillary attack, over regarding whether Obama is a patriot. See how the media latched onto his friendship with a former Weatherman? Trying to paint him as unpatriotic. I said before they would bring up more stuff to fit into this narrative of Obama not being patriotic, and they did. This will be their main play, as it sets up a stark contrast with McCain. Wright coming back last week certainly added to this theme.

Obama now has two major charges, both of which carry huge emotional weight with the American people. He has to start addressing them now.

Messaging, Elections, Obama, Analysis, Narratives, weak on defense label, primaries, Elitism frame | No Comments »

My sincere apologies for not writing for three weeks, especially since the big primary in Pennsylvania. But as I was trying to craft this piece, Rev. Jeremiah Wright reappeared, basically saying Obama was being a politician and did not mean what he said, i.e., Obama actually believes the U.S. was at fault for 9-11 and believes America has been so unjust to black Americans that they should tell God to damn America rather than bless it.

Well, that kind of threw off my initial topic.

Yet, rather than toss out everything I had written, I realized the Wright issue fit well into the larger narrative of recent events.

Essentially I was planning to write about how Obama’s ‘bitter and cling’ statement made him vulnerable to the Achilles Heel of most Democratic Presidential candidates – elitism.

Since then, Clinton, the media, and Rev. Wright have expounded on this theme, raising the spectre of elitism ever higher and helped destroy the Obama ‘magic’ that always wins states in which he gets to heavily campaign. His lead is shrinking in North Carolina and Hillary is pulling away in Indiana. Is Barack’s mojo gone? And if it is gone now, can he get it back?

Here is how he can.

The Elitism Problem

Elitism has been a devastating charge against many a Democrat. In fact, it is the base of all cultural hot button issues that conservatives use against liberals. If Clinton can use this to good effect against Obama, he is in trouble, and even more so if he makes it to the general election against McCain. Obama must address the cultural issue head on, and by extension, the elitism ‘problem’. Not just for his sake, but for all Democrats.

To make matters worse, Obama was right when he claimed people fall back on cultural issues when things get tough. Matt Taibi of Rolling Stone referred to this as the “frustration of diminished expectations” on Real Time with Bill Maher a few weeks back. People circle the wagons around what the can control when things get tough, and what they control are their cultural values.

Right now we have a period of diminished expectations, and people are so disheartened they do not think the government can help their plight, and many will likely vote on silly issues like gun control, gay marriage, or that Obama’s middle name is Hussein.

Addressing Elitism

As I said in my earlier post, Obama has to tell the public that voting on cultural issues is a vote against their self-interest. Voting to protect gun rights will not bring manufacturing jobs back, nor will it create new ones. Cultural issues detract from real economic issues, and despite the fact that your economic situation sucks, (more…)

Messaging, Elections, Democrats, Obama, Racism, Narratives, primaries, Elitism frame | 1 Comment »