Progressive Movement

We have heard a whole lot of stuff regarding the economy this week. And more to come. The campaigns have certainly had their fair share of talking points and cute quips. The polls show McCain taking a hit, but Obama not necessarily gaining too much. People are still not sure of him just yet. Here is one way he can close the deal.

He has to simplify his attacks on McCain. Drop the noise, focus on the fundamentals. He needs to say this:

“John McCain himself has said he does not know much about the economy. This week he proved it. He said he thought “the fundamentals of the economy are strong.” All the experts think the financial markets are experiencing Armageddon, and John McCain thinks everything is fine. How does he want to address the problem? By forming a commission.

So three years after the commissions forms they have a conclusion. That is three years to late. We need to do something now. John McCain wants a commission. Here is what I would do…”

After a few brief points, conclude by saying this:

“John McCain wants further deregulation. Always has. Deregulation got us into this mess, and McCain wants more of it. He also thinks ‘the fundamentals of the economy are strong’. That simply shows a completely wrong instinct on the economy. Is that who you will trust with the economy in crisis?

Forget all the lobbyist stuff. Just use McCain’s own words against him. And keep repeating the same line about not knowing anything about the economy and that the fundamentals are strong.

The only true policy stuff here centers on regulation vs. deregulation. McCain wants more of the same, Obama wants change.

Theme sound familiar? It should. That is what Obama has been trying to establish as the narrative of the campaign, and this economic crisis and McCain’s own words should help drive that narrative home. But right now Obama is being too cute and complicated.

Keep the attacks short, easy to understand, and honest. McCain cannot win on the defensive, and his own words show he has the wrong policies and instincts on the economy. No need to make stuff up.

Simplify

Messaging, Elections, McCain, Obama, Narratives | No Comments »

So two weeks after her announcement as VP for McCain, Sarah Palin finally gave her first media interview to the softball Charlie Gibson. Did you see it? Unbelievable. Even Charlie Gibson, one of the most kids glove interviewers out there (he makes Larry King look tough) made Palin look like a moose in the headlights.

But enough about the actual interview. The real issue is that it took so long for her first interview to happen and that it was with one of the easiest interviewers around.

Why so long? Because John McCain does not think the media treats Palin with enough respect or deference. Even if that were true the media was not playing nice with Palin (it is not), she would face much worse as VP. So McCain’s line of reasoning is utterly ridiculous. What is this, some kind of ‘I’m goning to pick up my marbles and go home’ hissy-fit?

Well, I think the Democrats ought to retort that if McCain is so concerned about Palin not being treated with enough deference, he ought to let Vladimir Putin interview her. Or Hugo Chavez. Maybe Kim Jon Il. How bout that dude from Iran whose name no one can pronounce? Yeah, those guys. I wonder how many of them will treat her with deference or respect?

If McCain thinks Palin is a delicate flower who cannot handle Wolf Blitzer, is she ready to handle negotiating with Mugabe? Or for that matter, Nancy Pelosi?

Seriously. If you cannot stand the heat get out of the VP slot. I really think progressives and Democrats should (more…)

Uncategorized, Elections, McCain, media, experience frame, Sarah Palin | 1 Comment »

Alright, here is the third and final part of my treatise on what Obama’s camp gets wrong regarding messaging strategy. This one that has me most perplexed, given that Obama seemed to really understand this early on. The rule is this. People do not vote on issues. They vote on values and personality.

Liberals have always eschewed talking values. They mistakenly believe that logic and reason will lead everyone to make the right decisions. Maybe it would, but people do not think that way. People make decisions largely by emotion, intuition, and abstract notions like values and morals, not with dry logic and reason.

This is most especially true in politics. People do not know the pros and cons of health care, nor do they care to. What they do know is how to judge people’s character. And as such, that is how they make political decisions. Is the person trustworthy? Can they do the job? Do I think they make good decisions?

When you talk about an issue like health care, you are not selling your policy; you are selling yourself. Ask any good sales person. People buy the sales person, not the item. If you turn people off, they will not buy from you. They will go buy from someone else.

Liberals have not understood this, and as such have not been able to make the sale. Even worse, conservatives were able to define liberals negatively. So people who agreed with Democrats and liberals on the issues voted against them since they felt liberals had bad values.

Everything Obama did up until the Sarah Palin VP pick showed he understood this. Progressives over the last few years have talked about the need to address matters of faith and values in order to show the public that progressive policies have a basis in common sense, Christian values. But while John Edwards blazed this trail in 2004, Obama paved it. No one in the history of progressive/liberal thought has communicated the value of progressivism better than Barack Obama. No one.

But he forgot which date brought him to the dance. Obama has recently started talking policy wonk stuff in his speeches and getting lost in a tit for tat with the Republicans over nonsense like lipstick on pigs. What are they thinking?!

Obama is not a policy wonk, nor does he need to be. He needs to connect to people emotionally. His charisma trumps John McCain’s. People ‘feel’ Obama much more than they ‘feel’ McCain. But that connection now gets lost.

Why has Sarah Palin jazzed up the Republicans and even middle of the road voters? (more…)

Messaging, Elections, McCain, Morals/Morality Frame, Obama, Narratives, Faith frame, Elitism frame, voting motivation, Sarah Palin | No Comments »

Ah, the eternal Democratic quest to inspire people to vote for positive ideals and hope for the future. Lovely idea. Too bad it never works. In fact, liberals usually think people vote on issues. Silly liberals. This time however, it seems that the Obama campaign at least understands people vote on emotion. Listen to his speeches. No logical explanations or detailed policy analysis. Just exhortations to higher purposes and hope. Great stuff, but it lacks one main element.

Obama does not really attack. Not attack in the sense of ‘Palin lies about opposing the bridge to nowhere’, but in the vein of ‘McCain wants to nuke Canada’. Seriously, many voters and even swing voters think Obama is a radical Muslim. Utter nonsense, but people at least ponder whether it might be true.

So why do the Democrats not attack in the ‘McCain wants to nuke Canada’ manner? Because they want to appeal to your higher sensibilities.

In a vacuum, sure, people would rather follow hope and other sensibilities. Problem is, if people have fear mongering on one side and hope mongering on the other, they will chose fear every time. Self preservation is our single biggest motivator, and fear is its manifestation.

This is one reason why I think the Obama campaign finds itself between a rock and a hard place. If he wants to change the face of politics and the tone of Washington; if he wants to be post-partisan, he cannot go negative. He cannot tap into the fear motivation. But if he does tap into that fear, he loses the whole essence of his campaign.

But he has to instill fear about McCain. If not, he will lose, period. I do not think the ‘McCain is Bush’ tactic, while powerful, has enough fear in it to get people to vote against McCain. People have to fear for their lives if they vote for him. Otherwise, they will vote for him because they are afraid Obama will let radical Muslim fundamentalists bomb our schools and steal our women.

I heard a lot on the Kerry campaign that people dislike negative campaigning so Democrats should not do it. I also heard that people are motivated to vote for things far more than they are motivated to vote against something. Never more hogwash have I ever heard in my life. Sure, people do not like negative campaigning, but they are affected by it more than anything else.

True, people would rather have hope than fear. But if they have fear, hope does not stand a chance.

Again, I think Obama’s message diametrically opposes negative campaigning. If he negatively campaigns, he loses his message. But if he does not go negative, he loses. Lose your message or lose your election. Your choice.

Messaging, Elections, Obama | No Comments »

This is the first of a three part blog entry. I am going to discuss the three primary mistakes of the Obama campaign from a macro level.

The three topics:

1) Being too nice and complimentary of John McCain.
2) Misunderstanding the motivation of hope vs. fear.
3) Underestimating the importance of culture in American politics

So let us begin:

From the beginning everyone in the Democratic camp has praised John McCain and his military service. For years actually. Where was that respect from the Republicans for John Kerry during their convention in 2004? Nowhere to be found. Remember Zell Miller’s speech? He said John Kerry would defend America with spit balls. Can you imagine any Democrat saying that of John McCain?

The essential problem of praising your opponent is this. It puts them a few rungs up the ladder. Then you have to knock them down those rungs to get them back to ground level. Now, if they return the favor, no problem. But what if they do not? They start by attacking you, and now you are in a hole before you even try to start climbing up the ladder.

So they start up and you start down. Or to use another analogy, it is like letting your opponent get a 10 meter start in the 100 meter dash while you have to start 10 yards further back. Only Usain Bolt can give his opponents that kind of head start. Barack Obama is not Usain Bolt.

There is some sense now that Obama is changing his tune. His latest ad certainly seems to suggest it.

Let us hope this sort of attack continues, and enough praising John McCain. You may think it makes you look fair and balanced, but all it really does is: (more…)

Iraq, McCain, Obama, Narratives, Olbermann, experience frame | No Comments »

Lots have been said about McCain’s lackluster speech, but Michael Gerson, former speech writer for President Bush, nailed it.

There is another part of his commentary I cannot find, but he basically makes the point that you cannot run as a maverick and then espouse the views of your predecessor. In other words, Gerson, a speech writer, understands narrative and how McCain failed to establish his. He realized what McCain was trying to do, but failed since the content did not match the theme. No other pundit really understood the speech in the narrative context the way Gerson did, although many of them came close.

Overall, a lackluster speech that should dampen the bounce McCain will get from the convention.

McCain, Analysis, Narratives | No Comments »

First night: (not counting the real first night which was truncated due to Gustav)

Thompson gave a pretty good speech for him, minus his incessant coughing. Especially the part outlining McCain’s bio. Attacked Obama’s experience, promoted McCain as a reformer. This fit with the theme of the night, McCain as a maverick reform who had lots of character and experience.

Then came Lieberman. Man was he a bore. And then he lists off all the things McCain has fought for, all of which Republicans hate, like ethics reform, ending earmarks, fighting global warming, liberal immigration reform, and campaign finance reform. And then he could not tell Andrea Kopple that Sarah Palin was experienced enough to be President.

This dynamic between the Thompson/Lieberman speeches highlights the biggest problem conservatives are going to have with John McCain. Depsite their apparent love of the inexperienced, unknown Palin, McCains’ record is not one of a conservative. Every time McCain pushes his ‘change’ theme, it will remind them of the fact that his only accomplishments in Washington have been liberal agendas. If he keeps hammering this change theme, the conservative fire for he and Palin will diminish. As a strategy, it will be fraught with peril.

As far as the attacking, hammering Obama on experience seemed to work well and should boost them a point or two in the polls.

Day Two: The Cougar attacks

Romney was lame. Huckabee better, minus his awful story about the desks at the end. At least he can tell a joke. However, did you notice how the crowd went silent when he started talking about the working class people who were struggling? Very telling. Republicans simply do not care for those struggling to get by. Democrats respond empathetically to those stores. Republicans sit on their hands. Still, the speech had only some red meat. Best line was when he said he became a Republican because he did not want to remain poor waiting for the government to bail him out. Excellent.

Why? It shoots straight to the heart of the narrative of Republicanism. People make themselves prosper, not society or government. Of course, it also characterizes liberal philosophy as having zero personal responsibility and simply expecting the government to do everything. This is definitely not the ideal of most liberals, but if the general public hears it, they may buy it, since they have been hearing it for decades.

However, the public does want the government to respond to disasters like Katrina, and they do expect the government to help with things like the current mortgage crisis. So this time around, that characterization may not stick.

Guiliani was the best I have seen him, both praising John McCain’s character and blasting Obama mercilessly. His contrast on how McCain and Obama deallt with the Russians invasion of Georgia was the best, as it was rooted in actual reactions by the two candidates. But seeing how much the delegates booed Obama and chanted “zero” might not sit too well with swing voters. Then he got too shrill and condescending towards Obama. While it was great red meat for the crowd, sarcasm only gets you so far with the middle. Still, his relentless attacks on Obama’s experience will likely sink through on some level.

The big show of the night, Sarah Palin.

Overall, (more…)

Elections, McCain, Obama, Rudy Giuliani, Narratives, Huckabee, Mitt Romney | No Comments »

Ouch. Two conservative commentators blasting the Sarah Palin pick for VP off camera.

Elections, Sarah Palin | No Comments »