Progressive Movement

Alright, I will be honest, I was underwhelmed by Obama’s 30 minute advertisement. As I mentioned in my previous post, he did not directly address the differences between his economic/tax philosophy and McCain’s. I will reiterate, I do not think we can transform this country fully into a progressive nation until we convince average Americans that liberal tax and economic policies are superior to conservative ones.

The imagery of the ad, the stories, the people shown, the over arching focus, show that Obama made this ad to appeal to middle America. It was a bio piece really, designed to cut through the clutter of negative ads and campaign rhetoric and redefine to people who Obama is and what he wants to do.

Case in point, he did not mention McCain once. All the negative attacks on Obama from McCain just ignored. Clearly Obama wanted a feel good piece, reassuring people he wanted to help hard working, middle class, values voter Americans. I think he did that okay, although it may not swing too many his way. By itself I think it maybe stopped the bleeding from McCain’s tax attack, and maybe it shored up some working class Democrats in some mid-West states. But I am not sure it did more than move the margins maybe .5% in his direction.

On the other hand, he brilliantly segued this piece, ending with a live speech in Florida, to a later speech with Bill Clinton. So just as the pundits were ending their pontification on the 30 minute ad, the live appearance of Obama and Clinton started. Hence, any talk about McCain’s response to the ad was cut short and Obama once again dominated the news cycle.

So great campaign craft by Team Obama, but what about the content of this joint stump event? Nearly brilliant.

Here is where Clinton and Obama layed out the progressive vision on economics. Here is where they criticized conservative, trickle down economics as hurting the middle and lower classes. Here is where they explained how working from the bottom up helped everyone, including those at the top.

The best line of the night came from Clinton, when he mentioned that his Presidency oversaw the creation of more millionaires and billionaires than Bush’s. This directly contradicts McCain’s claim Republican tax policies will make everyone rich. Only by tapping into the innate conservative notion that everyone has an inner rich person waiting to bust out can progressives persuade the majority of the public to embrace liberal economic philosophy.

In other words, the key motivator with many Americans is wealth. The difference is how to get it. By focusing on making people wealthier, (more…)

Messaging, McCain, Obama, Taxes, Analysis, Economy, conservative populism | No Comments »

Obama has his big 30 minute prime time TV special tonight. Not sure what is going to be in it, but we will find out soon enough. And it could not come at a better time. Of course, that assumes he addresses head on the issue that is giving McCain a badly needed lift in the polls. Taxes

In my previous two posts, I discussed the issue of conservative populism. On the one hand, conservative populism rallies people around cultural issues, people who feel their conservative values are under attack from urban, popular culture and the general progress of civilization. On the other, conservative populism stokes fears of taxation, that ‘big government’ will take people’s hard earned money away and give it to those who did not earn it, or to some special interest project that does not deserve it.

John McCain has found his voice the last two week on precisely this leg of conservative populism. It is a leg he had avoided all campaign, and even in the first few weeks of the financial crisis, he ignored this key conservative principle. Now he is not, and his language and populist fervor is catching fire in the conservative community.

You can see this in the polls now. McCain’s numbers are up; Obama’s are relatively unchanged. Conservatives and right leaning independents are coming home to McCain.

I am actually glad this is happening, and hope that Obama tonight uses this opportunity to tackle head on the conservative populist notion of taxation. It is the one area the Democrats have not tackled head on.

Why? Because the conservative notion on taxation, that the money you earn is yours and yours alone, makes intuitive sense to most people. You have to explain to people why the government needs taxes. You do not have to explain to people why their money is theirs.

Conservatives embrace the outdated American notion of self-reliance. None of us are self-reliant anymore, modern day society and economics do not allow it, but it is still an iconic American value. Progressives have a far more community, societal view of the world, and to them it makes sense that the government has to do things for the good of the people, that we cannot build roads for ourselves, for instance. As such, the government needs to tax us to get the money to provide the entire country and society with certain things beyond our individual control.

Can Obama make that sale? I think he can, and he needs to. Otherwise, he could lose the election on this issue alone. Still unlikely, but if he can show America that it is indeed American to tax the rich in order to provide for those things that benefit us all and ultimately give us a better chance to become rich, then he should win in a landslide.

If he does not, then he will not have changed the political landscape all that much. We will come out of this election as divided as before. What we need is a political realignment, and until Democrats embrace progressive taxation, we will not get there.

Elections, McCain, Obama, Taxes, Analysis | No Comments »

In my previous post I discussed the myth of conservative populism as embodied in the idealized form of Joe the plumber, even though the actual Joe is neither a Joe nor a plumber, nor someone on the verge of owning their own business.

What I did not mention was the fact that in order for the poor and working class folks to support conservatives, they must believe that taking their money and giving it to the rich will benefit them in the long run. Without this component, the myth of conservative populism largely fails (the cultural part remains). After all, a policy is not populist unless it purports to directly help the majority of the population. So conservatives have to tell the poor and middle class that trickle down economics benefits them.

However, the conservative economic agenda does not actually work for the working class, and over time, they will figure it out and not vote Republican. As such, since conservatives cannot usually win over enough of the public on the merits of their economic platform, the Republican elite must instill fear about progressive economic solutions to scare enough voters to vote for the Republicans and against their self-interest.

Republican scare tactics and racism

And that is exactly what we are seeing from McCain/Palin over the last few weeks. The charge of ‘socialism’ is a blatant attempt to scare voters away from Obama. Further, this attack is designed to raise latent white fear over blacks. Who was Reagan’s poster child for welfare? Black inner city mothers with four kids, living off the largess of hard-working whites. When Bush the Elder ran the country, they added ‘crack-addict’ to the description.

The movement away from Democrats after the 60s, especially in the South, was largely driven by LBJ’s policies about helping poor blacks and his support for civil rights.

Democratic economic policies are aimed at helping the less well off, and the less well off were, and are, largely minorities. ‘Socialism’, while primarily used to elicit a connection between liberal economic polices and Communism, also became code language for ‘helping blacks’. And if there is one thing white, conservative populists do not like, it is having their money go to help poor black people.

Conservative populists fear that others, especially immigrants, will take their money from them, or more specifically, prevent them from becoming wealthy - hence, some of the downright brutal anti-immigrant positions by many on the right. Conservatism, by its very nature, wants to maintain the status quo.

But that is not all. (more…)

Elections, McCain, Analysis, Racism, conservative populism | No Comments »

Ah Joe, we knew ye well. At least McCain thought he did. As we all know by now though, ‘Joe’ is a fraud. He is not a plumber, only makes 40k/yr, has no plans to buy his employers business, is a right wing nutter who shows up on right-wing talk shows, and by his own admission would get more tax breaks under Obama than under McCain.

But other than McCain once again showing poor vetting skills, the story is about something greater. Joe is not the real myth. The myth his fake story purports to tell is that of conservative populism.

Cultural conservative populism

Conservative populism derives much of its support from social/cultural issues, like abortion, gun rights, and religion. Conservative populists believe that the world (run by liberals in their mistaken view) disdains their views and persecutes them. The Roe v. Wade decision woke many social conservatives up to the fact that if they wanted to shape the world to their vision, they had to get politically involved. Roe v. Wade still serves as their clarion call since it proves to them the left’s attempt to persecute conservative cultural beliefs and activities (or the lack of them, in the case of abortion). Conservative cultural populism, in other words, derives its strength from a persecution complex. They believe that liberals are out to get them and their way of life.

Now it is not really true the left is out to get them, but there is a certain disregard for conservative culturalism on the left – say, on guns. So when the Republicans rally their base around cultural issues, there is some glimmer of truth to the concern, although it is entirely overblown. For instance, the Republican National Committee sent out mailings in West Virginia and Arkansas during the 2004 Presidential race saying the Democrats would ban the Bible. Clearly this is utterly absurd, but as shown by the likes of Bill Maher and others, some liberals do show a disdain for religion, fundamentalist religious beliefs in particular. As a result, the fear instilled in the conservative culturalists by the Republican Party can gain traction, no matter how far-fetched.

Still, no one is going to persecute the culturally conservative population, but this persecution complex is not the real myth of cultural populism. That comes with economics, and this is where Joe “the non-plumber” comes in.

Conservative Economic Populism

Reagan rallied conservative blue-collar union Democrats on four primary issues, God, guns, and guts (nationalism/self-reliance). The fourth? (more…)

Elections, McCain, Obama, Analysis, Economy, gun control, Narratives, conservative populism | 1 Comment »

I will be the first to admit I did not see all of Tuesday’s debate. I caught about half of it. Saw the end. I missed the awesome “that one” quip by McCain. It is getting a lot of play. Even if that scandal dies out quickly, everyone who saw it likely got the same impression. McCain is a dismissive, angry, rude man.

Polls show Obama getting big bounces from this debate on favorability ratings. It is easy to see why. While all the political junkies and consultants and talking heads like to count points won or lost in a debate, at the end of the day, how a candidate comes across means more than anything else.

Head to head people just like Obama more, and that is a huge hurdle McCain has to find a way around since he cannot jump over it.

Will the incessant attacks be a way around it? Well, recent daily tracking polls, with the exception of Gallup, seem to suggest they are having an effect. But for how long? And the debate numbers start coming in tomorrow. We will see shortly whether the debate stops the trend toward McCain due to the Ayers nonsense and whatever garbage he can sling.

Couple of points on the debate that I saw.

1) Focus on ‘preconditions’ - I do not get this. McCain has brought it up in each debate, Palin in the VP debate. Why do they think this works? Obama can deftly counter it every time, and his explanations make total sense. McCain’s position is screwy. And the more McCain pushes it, the more it looks like he is making a mountain out of a molehill. The issue is just not that important, and it is way too wonky. If that is all he has to bring to the fight, God help him.

2) Bombing Pakistan - Oh, I guess he does have one more weapon at his disposal. This one makes even less sense. Obama claims he would take out bin Laden if he could, even if he had to bomb within Pakistan. McCain agrees, but says Obama is reckless to announce he would do it. Huh? People are going to vote against Obama because he publicly said he would kill bin Laden without Pakistan’s approval? Really? Seriously, what sane person even gives a rat’s backside about this? This is so inside baseball I cannot even fathom it. Why McCain thinks this line of attack works confounds me to no end.

I know McCain wants to show Obama inexperience, (more…)

Elections, McCain, Obama, Narratives, debate | No Comments »

Yup, I am not analyzing the VP debate but the analysis of the VP debate.

I, like 70 million other Americans, watched the debate Thursday between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. And I, like 70 million other Americans, was glad to see that Sarah could form complete sentences and not drool on herself. The problem is, since she exceeded everyone’s expectations, everyone thinks she has quashed any detractions she may have caused by being woefully unprepared to be Vice-President.

Underneath most of these analyses lies the belief that she did not actually prove she was ready to be Vice President. However, that subtle point gets lost in the praise everyone gives her for adequately reading off talking points from cue cards. And of course, most everyone loved her folksy, charming, winking demeanor.

This narrative of two bars does a disservice to the public since it confuses the issue. So Palin can recite a talking point. Big deal. The only bar she has to cross is whether she can be VP, and by extension, President. Did any non-partisan viewer think Palin can assume the Presidency after that performance? Hopefully not.

And yet to hear the MSM tell it (and today’s Sunday talk shows confirm this), she put to bed the question as to whether McCain screwed up by picking her. By extension, that means she has the qualifications and ability to be President. But that is not the case and the media knows it. They say it in so many words, but how they analyze the debate makes people think she passed the real bar – whether she can be President.

Someone in the media needs to say soon that Palin got crushed by Biden (the polls after the debate show this) and that she had no business being on the same stage with him. She deflected questions, had no depth to her answers, and simply recited talking points. Do not lead with ‘oh, she exceeded expectations and has put an end to questions about her being on the ticket,’ and then say she convinced no one of her qualifications.

Instead (more…)

Elections, media, Narratives, debate, Sarah Palin, Joe Biden | No Comments »

In politics, during a moment of crisis, you are supposed to be able to act decisively, smartly, and for the good of the country. Moreover, as cynical as it sounds, you need to be able to act in a way that advances your cause or party. Missing those opportunities is unforgivable, especially when you can really deliver fundamental changes.

Such an opportunity was just missed by the Democratic leadership. I have never been more upset with Pelosi and Reid as I am right now. After the defeat of the first bailout bill, Pete DeFazio put forward a really good progressive bill that would solve the financial crisis without giving blank checks to Wall St. for bad loans and sticking the taxpayer with the bill.

But does the Dem leadership care? No, instead the Senate slapped some pork onto the original bill and passed it. Now the House, instead of voting on the truly progressive DeFazio bill, will take up the same lame bill, but now even lamer, and likely pass it.

What should have happened? After the first bill got fried, Reid should have used the opportunity to claim that the deal everyone had made was dead since the bill lost, and that the Dems were going to craft their own bill.

Then take up the DeFazio bill or something like it and pass it over Republican objections. Heck, many Republicans would vote for it anyway. Sure, put a couple of Republican policies in there, maybe even reduce the overall size of the bailout to appease the fiscal conservatives.

The protections put into such a bill, such as more regulation, stricter oversight of the Treasury Secretary, and actually helping people pay off their mortgages, rather than just buying bad credit from the banks, would get the public behind the bill.

It would be much easier to pitch to the public, and more economists would actually support it than the current debacle. The Democrats would look like heroes to the poor and the middle class and also have the benefit of looking like leaders.

Obama could have flown into town, held some meetings with Pelosi and Reid where he would push for a specific item or two to include in the bill, and then campaign on the bill. If the bill passes, Pelosi, Frank, Reid and others could give Obama credit for certain elements of the bill.

Even if the bill goes down, (more…)

Democrats, Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Economy, Narratives | 2 Comments »