On this eve of the election, here are my final thoughts on the campaign messaging.
Obama
He started the primaries using lofty rhetoric and moral explanations for progressive policies. That inspired the base while pulling moderates to his side who were hungry to hear the values of progressivism after so many years where liberals hide from speaking in quasi-religious terminology.
However, once he won the nomination, he slowly started to speak in more detail about issues. His convention speech deftly blended issues, vision, and moral values. I feel he would have kept on that path, except he got hit hard a few weeks earlier with McCain’s celebrity ad. So while the Republicans were having their Palin/convention day in the Sun, Obama retooled the tone and messaging of the campaign.
Without anyone noticing the shift, he started almost exclusively talking about specific issues and policies, dropping the high language and bringing the issues down to the regular person’s understanding and experience. He appeared more serious and thoughtful, less preacher like. The debates drove this home, when he scored three victories against McCain by his demeanor alone, but added to his dominating performance by avoiding the tit-for-tat with McCain on useless mudslinging. This gave him more time to get detailed about his plans, making him seem erudite and thorough.
This was done solely to undercut the McCain line of attack the Obama was not ready. He showed in the debates he was. But rather than directly respond to McCain’s attacks, in a he said, he said sort of way, Obama simply demonstrated that McCain was wrong. Absolutely brilliant.
Moreover, he pivoted away from his more progressive language and embraced more centrist, post-partisan language. This is not unique for campaigns to do in general elections, but it stands in stark contrast with McCain, who went further to the right.
Obama’s VP pick also showed his way of dealing with the experience charge. Many progressive blogs wanted Obama to pick a ‘reinforcing’ VP rather than the ‘balancing’ pick of Joe Biden. But Obama knew he had to mollify people’s fears over this experience, so he went with the experienced Biden. This demonstrated Obama’s ability to make a thoughtful and serious choice.
The message discipline has been tight. Most recently, on the Rachel Maddow show, she tried to get him to attack conservatism in general for America’s economic and foreign policy plight. He refused, saying instead that America wanted to come together to find answers, not blame certain ideologies. This was a very telling answer. He could have picked a fight with conservative views on taxation, perfectly reasonable considering McCain had been blasting him on his taxation views, calling them socialistic, but he did not. Anyone really watching that would notice this is not an extreme ideologue, but rather a man who really looks far ahead and realizes he cannot alienate people if he wants to get things done.
Overall, while I wish he had attacked McCain and conservatism more heavily, Obama clearly wanted to present a vision that would neutralize him from McCain’s attacks on him as unpatriotic, radical, and inexperienced. He did, and that is why McCain’s attacks have failed.
Overall an absolutely flawless campaign. He made one mistake from his ‘bitter and cling’ comment back in the primaries, and he has been careful not to open up that cultural rift again.
Of course any discussion of campaigns would be remiss without mentioning Obama’s phenomenal ground game and fundraising. This is how elections are won. Ironic that the one thing the Republicans mercilessly and demeaningly mocked at their convention was Obama’s community organizing. What do community organizers learn? How to get people organized, enthusiastic, and willing to do the menial tasks necessary to run campaigns, as well as raise money. What two things has Obama done the best? Organizing volunteers and raising money.
So Obama’s community organizing experience will be the thing that ultimately drives the final nail into the GOP coffin and give him a large margin of victory (as I predict). Gotta love that.
Their tactics and strategy in both the general and primary elections have also been nearly flawless. This is evident to millions of Americans, and that thoughtfulness and seriousness resounds very heavily with people. Campaigns are an example as to how you would run the Presidency, and if this campaign is any indication, Obama will run a thorough, thoughtful, consistent, and moderate White House.
McCain
On the other hand, there is McCain. What a disastrous campaign. From his bad props (green screen anyone?), to his sloppy advance teams (Joe, where’s Joe?), to his shoot from the hip VP pick, to his inconsistent messaging, to his tone deaf out of touch policies (the fundamentals of the economy are strong), this must be the worst Presidential campaign in modern history. Did I mention the poor fundraising and nearly non-existent GOTV efforts? Scurrilous attacks? Bad strategy (trying to win PA)?
The whole thing was a mess in a year that was bad for Republicans anyway. McCain may have claimed he had more experience than Obama, but his campaign reinforced Obama’s claim that he had bad judgment and uneven temper. Derail your own messaging while acting in a way that legitimizes your opponent’s – not good.
Conclusion
Obama wins this race by having a superb, long-term strategy, issues that resonant with voters, and better organizing and fundraising skills. And that is the best messaging you can get.