Two weeks into the new administration and how has Obama done both with his political strategy and messaging? So far, not so dandy, although the executive decisions and announced policy changes have been quite solid.
Messaging
I will give Obama credit for one thing on the messaging front; he admitted his Administration made a mistake for not cutting off early Daschle and his other appointees who had tax issue problems. Admitting mistakes is a welcome change from Bush, who even in his last days, seemed way too intent on placing blame on others than coming clean about his Administration’s many shortcomings.
So Obama has enacted change in that regard, and thank heavens for that. The overall feel so far is that the sober headed adults are now running the asylum, not the inmates.
But the rest of the messaging has been questionable. The Republicans have successfully defined the stimulus bill as a pork barrel spending free for all that will do nothing for the economy, even though the pork only amounts to 1 percent of the entire $813 billion package.
Consequently, the House Republicans who unanimously voted against the stimulus bill now look like heroes for standing up to the supposedly flawed, ineffective bill, even after the Democrats handed them loads of stuff the Republicans wanted. Now Obama looks like someone willing to compromise with a weak and wounded enemy to no effect, while continuing business as usual in Washington, at least in regards to spending.
No surprise then that combined with several of his appointees having ethical and tax problems, Obama’s approval rating has dropped 19 points from when he took office.
Can he right the ship so quickly off course? Well, admitting his mistakes, as I mentioned, is a good first step. But he has to explain why this stimulus bill will create jobs and spur economic growth in the short term. Long-term benefits generally do not engender short-term boosts in support or popularity, so Obama should shy away from that aspect of the bill.
The problem is the bill will not actually spur much short-term economic activity or jobs, so Obama will have to dance around that inconvenient truth. Rumor has it, according to Hardball on MSNBC (3 Feb 09), Obama yelled at Democratic leaders about the excess spending in the bill. That is a good step if they actually drop it, as it will eliminate the Republican’s main talking point against the bill.
Also, a classic messaging technique is to change the subject to something more positive for you. Obama should come out with some more high profile, popular executive decisions that will signal that change is still the order of the day, like his decision to raise CAFÉ standards (gas mileage standards) to 35 mpg. That should get the press attention onto that while he works behind the scenes to clean up and pass the stimulus bill.
Strategy
Political strategy is closely tied to messaging, as a good strategy makes you look good, while a bad one (picking appointees with bad tax records) makes you look bad. And it is hard to message around a bad image.
The 800 pound gorilla in the room is the stimulus bill (which should be called the ‘jobs bill’). As Obama should have learned, giving concessions to the Republicans before negotiations even start will only get you a watered down bill that they do not vote for anyway. Start with a give away to them and Republicans will still spit in your face. If they want to play partisan games, fine, two can play that game.
The public voted for massive change. Obama should give the people what they want. Concede nothing to the weakened Republicans and make them realize that if they want to be relevant, they need to come to the table ready to deal in good faith. If they do not, then leave them in the dust. Once Franken gets seated in the Senate, the Dems will have 59 votes. They can nearly pass bills with impunity. There is no reason to give the Republicans anything until they capitulate first. Then throw them a bone or two.
As it is, we now have a bunch of unnecessary tax cuts in the stimulus bill because the Dems just threw them in there thinking the Republicans would roll over and play dead. Good grief, have the Dems learned nothing all these years?
Unfortunately, I expect Obama will cling to his post-partisan rhetoric and give more of the store away to the Republicans. And as a result, very little good will happen.
Taxes
The single biggest problem progressives face in both policy and messaging is taxation. They simple do not know how to talk about taxes, and end up agreeing to the discredited notion that reductions in the tax rate spur economic growth. But if everyone making policy explicitly or implicitly agrees to this idea, then no one will know the fallacies of supply side economics. Everyone now agrees to the idea of balanced budgets and deficit reduction, when in some cases neither are good. But no politician will stick their neck out and say that in times like these the government should spend like mad to get the economy back in gear.
In my opinion, until liberals and progressives learn how to talk about taxes, they will never be able to truly reform our economy and implement significant progressive policies. At the heart of the Obama tax give away in the stimulus bill is the unwillingness Democrats have to engage Republicans on taxes. It will be an ugly fight, trying to undo decades of messaging supporting reductions in civic investment (i.e. tax) rates, but liberals cannot be afraid of taking a few hits during this fight. If we want real change, we are going to have to pay for it, and that means everyone will have to chip in their fair share to make things like increased infrastructure investment and universal health care possible.
My next post should be a primer on how to talk about taxes.