It has been quite a week in politics, swine flu aside. Media outlets and pundits fell over themselves trying to judge Obama’s first 100 days, whilst protesting the artifice of such a benchmark.
One thing became obvious during the week though, something that started taking shape when the whole fight between Rush Limbaugh and the Republican Party establishment started a few weeks ago. The two parties are going in completely different directions. While the Democrats, for all of their faults, move forward and seem in conjunction with the American public, the Republicans appear hopelessly outdated and clueless.
Here are some of the week’s main events, and how they demonstrate waning fortunes of conservatism vs. the waxing prospects of moderate progressivism.
First 100 Days: I have disliked many of Obama’s Cabinet appointments, particularly Geithner, for being too moderate and part of the status quo. Moreover, the strategy he employed with the stimulus bill was disastrous. In his effort to be post-partisan, he gave far too much away to conservatives up front, rather than pushing a progressive stimulus bill and forcing the Republicans to scale back the bill from a far more left wing position. As it was, the Republicans refused to recognize Obama’s good faith effort to compromise and rejected the bill, even after extracting more concessions from the Democrats. The end result is a bill whose original philosophy – using governmental spending to boost the economy – was largely negated by the cuts in the spending levels by Obama and the Republicans.
However, Obama seems to have learned quickly. He used his vast powers of persuasion and charisma to drive the debate around the budget, and despite total Republican refusal to support it, it passed without too much controversy.
Additionally, his comments regarding abortion during this week’s press conference showed his growing understanding of how post-partisanship really works. He moved past old political arguments by focusing on finding ways to decrease unwanted pregnancies, something on which everyone can agree. If he is able to move forward on this initiative and reduce unwanted pregnancies, it will make it that much more dangerous for conservatives to oppose him. They likely will, of course, and the result will be that conservatives/Republicans will find themselves even more irrelevant than they currently are. That is how you do post-partisanship. Do not capitulate in negotiations, just simply move past the roadblock by finding creative solutions that most everyone can agree upon.
Overall, Obama’s messaging seems more effective 104 days in than it did at the beginning of his term. Over time, expect him to refine this even more, giving him to power to pass significant, if not controversial, legislation.
Arlen Specter: Other than swine flu, this was the story of the week, and as my previous post discusses, clearly shows the desperate straights of the Republican Party. While bad for the Democrats in the long run, in the short term this deal should result in key legislation, such as health care reform. As a symbol of how Obama is doing so far, and where conservative and progressive political ideologies are headed, look no further than Arlen Specter.
Gay Marriage: Polls this week showed dramatic movement towards accepting gay marriage, and both New Hampshire and Maine made big legislative steps towards legalizing it. The ball is finally rolling on this issue, and the more states allow it, the more obvious it will become that the fears over gay marriage are unfounded. And that, in turn, will dissolve public opposition to gay marriage.
Continuing to bash gays and virulently oppose gay marriage when the public is quickly moving in the opposite direction (and no, that is not in the “opposite marriage” direction), and the younger generations overwhelming support gay marriage, is a recipe for irrelevance.
Budget passes: As mentioned above, the relative ease with which Obama’s budget passed, even over complete Republican rejection and some Democrat defection, shows how much better Obama has gotten at passing legislation and manipulating Washington. One key element concerns Obama taking his case straight to the public. Will this result in Obama overload? Perhaps. But at the moment it builds his political capital and that moves legislation.
Foot in Mouth Disease: Ah, the poor Republicans. They are dancing with the date that brought them, and that date has no basis in reality or tolerance. Quotes this week by Rep Fox (claiming the hate aspect of the Matthew Shepherd killing was a “hoax”, Rep. Barton (stating the college football bowl system was akin to Communism), Rep. Bachman (carbon dioxide cannot be dangerous because it is natural), and numerous comments about how illegal aliens brought us swine flu, with even one Boston conservative talk show host being canned for extreme racist comments, clearly dig the Republicans into a deeper hole.
Equating all Mexicans with illegal immigrants, and carriers of swine flu, does nothing to help the Republican cause with Latinos. They are the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population. Digging your hole deeper with them is no way to get your Party out of the hole in which it is already.
It may be rude, ditching your date for a better-looking dance partner, but this is what the Republicans will have to do. The Republican Party must jettison the religious right in order to remain a political force. But I do not see it happening before the 2010 election, and likely not until after 2012.
Torture: The revelations about Bush Administration torture severely damaged the Republican image. Worse still was the attempt by Republicans after the memos came out to justify the use of torture. Americans just do not accept the idea that the U.S. should torture. Trying to establish yourself as the party of morals is kind of hard if you are advocating torture.
Granted, I wholehearted reject Obama’s effort to brush this touchy issue under the rug by claiming he does not want to prosecute any Americans involved in torturing, but his desire to sidestep the issue does not hurt Democrats all that much. In fact, the left’s outrage over Obama’s attempt to dodge the torture issue forced Obama to back off his initial claim of not wanting to pursue criminal charges against those who authorized torture.
That outcry showed how much more moral progressives are than conservatives. Progressives on the whole do not countenance torture; conservatives on the whole try to justify it. And if any prosecutions of government officials over torture occur, it will only occur due to continued progressive pressure on Obama. Either way, conservatives look immoral for trying to justify torture, and that cannot be good for their brand.
Conclusion: I see Obama quickly learning the limitations of his initial post-partisanship. It seems that he now understands the Republicans want him to fail and will not negotiate in good faith. So he has to circumvent them. More evidence of this happening emerges day by day.
What I also see is a Republican Party still clinging to tired ideology. Their obstructionism leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth too, since people want action right now, not stalling. To reuse the analogy above, the Republican Party needs to dance with another partner, since their initial date to the dance is lame and stepping on their toes. Ditch the bad date and ask the good looking girl (or guy) to dance. You just might get lucky.