Progressive Movement

A lot of ground has been covered in the Presidential race since I posted three weeks ago. In fact, I would say this race is moving faster at this stage of the race than most other recent Presidential campaigns.

The big news, of course, was Obama’s foreign policy/Middle East trip. After looking like he had forgotten how to control overarching narratives and themes during the last few weeks, Obama seems to have found his bearing again. This week long trip proved once again that Obama understands how to effectively message compared to most Democrats. Oh, there were negative things about the trip too, so let us break it all down and see what comes out in the wash.

The Good

Obama’s trip accomplished three key things

1) Showed he could be the Commander in Chief, (i.e. negated the ‘lack of experience’ rap.)
2) Showed he had better foreign policy judgment than John McCain
3) Dominated media coverage

In the summer of ’04, John Kerry mentioned that most world leaders privately told him they wanted him to win the Presidency. Republicans poured a mountain sized amount of grief on top of Kerry for this ham-fisted attempt to show he was better at foreign policy than Bush.

But look at Obama. He actually went overseas to talk to foreign leaders publicly - none of this ‘they told me privately’ silliness. Everywhere he went he was warmly received, and better than that, Maliki, the prime minister of Iraq, supported Obama’s troop pullout plan! Events in Afghanistan proved Obama’s position that we should focus on that country rather than Iraq.

As the week went on, the debate over the success of the escalation (that initially hurt Obama) ended up exposing McCain as a fraud, since he could not get his facts straight on Iraq and then continued to defend his mistakes, digging a deeper hole for himself. During the same time, Obama expertly and consistently made his case that the escalation had little to do with Iraq’s reduction in violence.

All these things combined, especially Maliki’s support of Obama’s Iraq plan, utterly destroys McCain’s position on Iraq, and certainly obliterates any rationale for staying in Iraq since the Iraqis do not even want us there. So McCain ended up looking like a fool, and Obama looked like the foreign policy expert.

Ultimately, the trip showed he can handle the job of President, dispelling the notion he does not have enough experience for the job.

Lastly, the media covered every move Obama made, and he made all the right moves. There is no better way to win over voters than to dominate the media coverage. As I mentioned in a previous post, the imagery could not be more different between Obama and McCain. Before, Al ‘Noble Peace Prize, former VP, and Oscar winner’ Gore endorsed Obama at a massive rally while McCain has to deal with the embarrassment of Clayton “rape is like the weather” Williams raising money for him. Now, Obama gave a fantastic speech in Berlin in front of 200,000 enthused Germans while McCain is at a German restaurant with 20 people eating cream puffs. That is the kind of narrative and imagery you cannot buy. If that happens a few more times, especially closer to the elections, its all over.

This trip, if the MSM picks up the right meme and Obama and progressives push the right narrative, will end up being the beginning of the end for McCain. Not overnight, but if the narrative Obama has set sticks - that he is qualified to be the CINC and that he has better judgment about defense/foreign policy issues –McCain’s whole rationale for his candidacy crumbles.

The Bad

There was only one concern I had with this trip. (more…)

Messaging, Iraq, Elections, Iran, Diplomacy, Polls, McCain, media, Obama, Analysis, Terrorism, Racism, Troop withdrawal, Narratives, weak on defense label, Foreign Policy, FISA | No Comments »

Check out this new YouTube video by Robert Greenwald and Fox Attacks about FoxNews trying to sell a war with Iran. The great thing about this video? It parallels the messaging used to sell the Iraq War with what Fox is saying now about Iran.

In fact, this video is getting so much play, MoveOn.org has picked it up and is running a fundraising and petition campaign around it. They want to use it to persuade other MSM not to believe the hype that Fox is selling. To sign the petition (I did) check it out here.

Messaging

I have to say, if you know nothing about the reality of the situation, it is very easy to fall into to fear trap. It comes down to a simple calculation, which side to you want to take the risk on being wrong, the peacenik or the war monger? If the peacenik is wrong, your screwed. If the warmonger is wrong, you have invaded another country without real just cause, although you did depose its leaders who do not like you. The safe better is with the warmonger.

My feeling is that sooner or later, the public will support a war with Iran if the media does not counter the conservative spinmachine. That is why Greenwald’s video and the corresponding effort to pressure other MSM to not buy the warmongering hype is so important. As long as the media does not pick up the ‘bomb Iran’ refrain, we have a chance at heading off a war with Iran.

Now I have not seen any polling on what people are feeling about invading Iran, but I cannot imagine it is very high. And it likely will not get very high while we are stuck in Iraq. But the fear mongering worked well in the lead up to Iraq, and it will work well with Iran (more…)

Messaging, Iraq, Elections, Iran, Diplomacy, Administration, media, Analysis, weak on defense label, Foreign Policy | No Comments »

The Dems bent over and grabbed their ankles for Bush on warrantless wiretapping, and if Bush pushes hard enough, they probably will do so over Iran too. The U.S. now wants to list the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, largely because the U.S. claims they are aiding Shitte forces in Iraq. If Bush then gathers enough ‘evidence’ of Iranian involvement in Iraq, the American public may just yet support fighting a new enemy. Do not believe me? Search Google for ‘Iraq’ and ‘Iran’ over the last 24 hours and see how many stories come up about how we need to fight Iran if we want success in Iraq. Scary.

This administration has no interest in negotiating compromises with Iran. That is not what empires do. They dictate, everyone else complies or rebels. Cheney/Bush want regime change in Iran, and any talks with Iran is just window dressing, like the inspectors in Iraq were in the run up to the war. It is a box they have to check off before they can claim obstinance on Iran’s part and justify war.

But there is another way. Witness a recent religious delegation to Iran from the U.S. Joe Volk of FCNL wrote daily diaries of the trip, and his viewpoint is one not often repeated by the pro-war media. Pretty interesting observations. For instance, he is not convinced Iran has decided to pursue nuclear weapons. They might, but a lot of that depends upon how the U.S. treats them. If we are belligerent, they will do what their national security dictates, and that means getting the one weapon that will guarantee we will not attack them. Why do you think we are negotiating in earnest with North Korea and not Iran?

Anyway, I love the idea of a religious delegation to Iran. At a time when radical Muslims can claim with a certain amount of truth that Christians want to destroy Islam and that the war in Iraq is an attempt to force corrupting Western culture down the throat of all Muslims, it is important that we have Christian leaders show that this is not the case.

Our Voices Together also does interesting work on this front. In other words, how do we as a society, a cultural, or as an individual make that connection between different worlds to show that we are not all that different, and that we have more in common as humans than not? If we can bridge this divide, support for terrorism and extremism will decline.

Iraq, Iran, Diplomacy, North Korea, Terrorism, Foreign Policy | No Comments »

So Pelosi arrives in Syria dragging along with her the anger of Bush and his conservative Republican friends. It seems the Bushies are all in a huff about Pelosi engaging Syria when the Bush Administration has had a policy of ignoring them. What are they so afraid of? Basically, Pelosi upstaging Bush. Turns out their fears were founded.

Of course, they do not say that. Republicans were covering their fears with two lines of attack. One, only the President can form foreign policy and everyone else should just go home. That we know to be demonstrably incorrect, as the Constitution divides foreign policy between the three branches, as it does everything else.

It is also hypocritical, as a Republican Congressional delegation was just in Syria and pushed policies different that the Clinton Administration. We never heard a word of protest about that.

The second argument is a reiteration of Bush’s policy toward Syria; basically, talking to them will not produce results. As Bush himself said,

“Sending delegations doesn’t work. It’s simply been counterproductive.”

Pelosi advanced no policy with Assad that is any different than what the Administration wants, except actually talking to him. Thus, the real fight here is over the value of diplomacy. The White House’s basic assumption, which they have stated directly, (more…)

Diplomacy, Administration, Pelosi, Analysis, Syria, Israel | No Comments »

The good news keeps coming. As if Rumsfeld’s resignation was not a clear enough sign that elections have repurcussions, two more controversial, neoconservative administration officials have stepped down. The biggest and baddest is UN ambassador John Bolton. A firm supporter of unilateral U.S. foreign policy, Bolton was recessed appointed last year because key Senate Republican opposed him as UN ambassador. Two days after the mid-term elections Bush renominated him since his recess appointment ends when the new Democratic controlled Senate takes charge next January. However, Bolton was once again stopped by concerned Republicans, this time Sen. Lincoln Chaffee. Seeing his nomination was going nowhere, Bolton resigned yesterday.

Stephen Cambon also decided he would be better served elsewhere. In charge of Pentagon intelligence, Cambon was a behind the scenes guy who nonetheless had immense influence in the Administration. His intelligence estimates helped justify the Iraq War. He allegedly masterminded the use of torture for intelligence gathering used by in CIA and military interrogation efforts.

Both men are poster children for Bush’s falied unilateralist, neoconservative foreign policy. With Rumsfeld gone as well, there is a great chance for the Senate to demand the White House nominate candidates that care about facts and reality. Unfortunately, the Senate Armed Services Committee supported Robert Gates, Rumsfeld’s nominated replacement, and known manipulator of intelligence, since they are itching to get rid of Rummy. But Democrats should use Bolton’s vacancy to force a big change at the UN Ambassador slot.

Of course they will not seize this opportunity, under the mistaken guise that they need to show bi-partisanship over appointees. (more…)

Messaging, Diplomacy, Administration, Nominations | No Comments »